{
  "title": "Echelon Group: Global Banking Electricity Outlook 2026–2038",
  "version": "1.0",
  "date": "2026-09-27",
  "status": "Preliminary conditional scenario model; no scenario probabilities",
  "population": "Stylized portfolio of 100 large banking groups worldwide, not an enumerated ranking or the whole banking sector",
  "baseline_TWh": 60,
  "baseline_sensitivity_TWh": [
    40,
    80
  ],
  "scenario_order": [
    "efficient",
    "base",
    "accelerated"
  ],
  "annual_AI_electricity_growth": [
    [
      0.2,
      0.15,
      0.08
    ],
    [
      0.35,
      0.3,
      0.15
    ],
    [
      0.5,
      0.45,
      0.25
    ]
  ],
  "periods": [
    "2027–2030",
    "2031–2036",
    "2037–2038"
  ],
  "rows": [
    {
      "year": 2026,
      "scenarios": [
        {
          "electricity_TWh": 60.0,
          "average_GW": 6.8493150684931505,
          "provision_GW": 13.29195205479452,
          "multiple": 1.0,
          "AI_TWh": 6.0
        },
        {
          "electricity_TWh": 60.0,
          "average_GW": 6.8493150684931505,
          "provision_GW": 13.29195205479452,
          "multiple": 1.0,
          "AI_TWh": 6.0
        },
        {
          "electricity_TWh": 60.0,
          "average_GW": 6.8493150684931505,
          "provision_GW": 13.29195205479452,
          "multiple": 1.0,
          "AI_TWh": 6.0
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "year": 2027,
      "scenarios": [
        {
          "electricity_TWh": 60.705,
          "average_GW": 6.929794520547945,
          "provision_GW": 13.321489726027398,
          "multiple": 1.01175,
          "AI_TWh": 7.199999999999999
        },
        {
          "electricity_TWh": 61.605,
          "average_GW": 7.032534246575342,
          "provision_GW": 13.469178082191782,
          "multiple": 1.02675,
          "AI_TWh": 8.100000000000001
        },
        {
          "electricity_TWh": 62.504999999999995,
          "average_GW": 7.135273972602739,
          "provision_GW": 13.616866438356164,
          "multiple": 1.04175,
          "AI_TWh": 9.0
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "year": 2028,
      "scenarios": [
        {
          "electricity_TWh": 61.679475000000004,
          "average_GW": 7.04103595890411,
          "provision_GW": 13.397401541095888,
          "multiple": 1.0279912500000001,
          "AI_TWh": 8.639999999999999
        },
        {
          "electricity_TWh": 63.974475000000005,
          "average_GW": 7.303022260273973,
          "provision_GW": 13.77400684931507,
          "multiple": 1.06624125,
          "AI_TWh": 10.935000000000002
        },
        {
          "electricity_TWh": 66.53947500000001,
          "average_GW": 7.595830479452056,
          "provision_GW": 14.194918664383563,
          "multiple": 1.10899125,
          "AI_TWh": 13.5
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "year": 2029,
      "scenarios": [
        {
          "electricity_TWh": 62.971030125,
          "average_GW": 7.188473758561644,
          "provision_GW": 13.527445569349315,
          "multiple": 1.04951716875,
          "AI_TWh": 10.367999999999999
        },
        {
          "electricity_TWh": 67.36528012500001,
          "average_GW": 7.690100470890412,
          "provision_GW": 14.248533968321919,
          "multiple": 1.1227546687500003,
          "AI_TWh": 14.762250000000003
        },
        {
          "electricity_TWh": 72.853030125,
          "average_GW": 8.316555950342467,
          "provision_GW": 15.149063720034247,
          "multiple": 1.21421716875,
          "AI_TWh": 20.25
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "year": 2030,
      "scenarios": [
        {
          "electricity_TWh": 64.63688721187499,
          "average_GW": 7.3786400926797935,
          "provision_GW": 13.72095931110873,
          "multiple": 1.0772814535312498,
          "AI_TWh": 12.441599999999998
        },
        {
          "electricity_TWh": 72.124324711875,
          "average_GW": 8.233370400898973,
          "provision_GW": 14.9496341291738,
          "multiple": 1.20207207853125,
          "AI_TWh": 19.929037500000007
        },
        {
          "electricity_TWh": 82.570287211875,
          "average_GW": 9.425831873501712,
          "provision_GW": 16.66379749604024,
          "multiple": 1.37617145353125,
          "AI_TWh": 30.375
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "year": 2031,
      "scenarios": [
        {
          "electricity_TWh": 66.12372452837812,
          "average_GW": 7.54837037995184,
          "provision_GW": 13.887092494615258,
          "multiple": 1.1020620754729686,
          "AI_TWh": 14.307839999999995
        },
        {
          "electricity_TWh": 77.72363327837813,
          "average_GW": 8.872560876527183,
          "provision_GW": 15.790616333442314,
          "multiple": 1.295393887972969,
          "AI_TWh": 25.90774875000001
        },
        {
          "electricity_TWh": 95.85963452837811,
          "average_GW": 10.942880653924442,
          "provision_GW": 18.766701013450877,
          "multiple": 1.5976605754729685,
          "AI_TWh": 44.043749999999996
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "year": 2032,
      "scenarios": [
        {
          "electricity_TWh": 67.91849250190467,
          "average_GW": 7.753252568710579,
          "provision_GW": 14.105702889120082,
          "multiple": 1.1319748750317444,
          "AI_TWh": 16.454015999999992
        },
        {
          "electricity_TWh": 85.14454987690468,
          "average_GW": 9.719697474532497,
          "provision_GW": 16.932467441239094,
          "multiple": 1.4190758312817446,
          "AI_TWh": 33.68007337500001
        },
        {
          "electricity_TWh": 115.32791400190466,
          "average_GW": 13.165286986518797,
          "provision_GW": 21.885502364719397,
          "multiple": 1.9221319000317443,
          "AI_TWh": 63.86343749999999
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "year": 2033,
      "scenarios": [
        {
          "electricity_TWh": 70.06285185782775,
          "average_GW": 7.998042449523716,
          "provision_GW": 14.383578284749005,
          "multiple": 1.1677141976304626,
          "AI_TWh": 18.922118399999988
        },
        {
          "electricity_TWh": 94.9248288453278,
          "average_GW": 10.836167676407284,
          "provision_GW": 18.46338329839413,
          "multiple": 1.5820804807554631,
          "AI_TWh": 43.78409538750002
        },
        {
          "electricity_TWh": 143.74271783282776,
          "average_GW": 16.408986053975774,
          "provision_GW": 26.474309716148834,
          "multiple": 2.395711963880463,
          "AI_TWh": 92.60198437499999
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "year": 2034,
      "scenarios": [
        {
          "electricity_TWh": 72.6047775272222,
          "average_GW": 8.288216612696598,
          "provision_GW": 14.728543837721054,
          "multiple": 1.2100796254537032,
          "AI_TWh": 21.760436159999983
        },
        {
          "electricity_TWh": 107.76366537097223,
          "average_GW": 12.301788284357562,
          "provision_GW": 20.49805311573369,
          "multiple": 1.796061089516204,
          "AI_TWh": 56.91932400375002
        },
        {
          "electricity_TWh": 185.11721871097217,
          "average_GW": 21.132102592576732,
          "provision_GW": 33.19162993379875,
          "multiple": 3.0852869785162027,
          "AI_TWh": 134.27287734374997
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "year": 2035,
      "scenarios": [
        {
          "electricity_TWh": 75.59950318779858,
          "average_GW": 8.630080272579747,
          "provision_GW": 15.149617037378835,
          "multiple": 1.2599917197966428,
          "AI_TWh": 25.024501583999978
        },
        {
          "electricity_TWh": 124.57012280867363,
          "average_GW": 14.220333653958177,
          "provision_GW": 23.185606273110327,
          "multiple": 2.0761687134778937,
          "AI_TWh": 73.99512120487503
        },
        {
          "electricity_TWh": 245.27067375223604,
          "average_GW": 27.998935359844296,
          "provision_GW": 42.99234622532162,
          "multiple": 4.087844562537267,
          "AI_TWh": 194.69567214843744
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "year": 2036,
      "scenarios": [
        {
          "electricity_TWh": 79.11060753147568,
          "average_GW": 9.030891270716403,
          "provision_GW": 15.657185931061644,
          "multiple": 1.3185101255245946,
          "AI_TWh": 28.778176821599974
        },
        {
          "electricity_TWh": 146.52608827621327,
          "average_GW": 16.72672240596042,
          "provision_GW": 26.719943187974913,
          "multiple": 2.442101471270221,
          "AI_TWh": 96.19365756633755
        },
        {
          "electricity_TWh": 332.64115532511,
          "average_GW": 37.97273462615411,
          "provision_GW": 57.261085754503334,
          "multiple": 5.5440192554185,
          "AI_TWh": 282.30872461523427
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "year": 2037,
      "scenarios": [
        {
          "electricity_TWh": 81.1967911385523,
          "average_GW": 9.269040084309623,
          "provision_GW": 15.932642857366728,
          "multiple": 1.353279852309205,
          "AI_TWh": 31.080430967327974
        },
        {
          "electricity_TWh": 160.7390663725125,
          "average_GW": 18.349208490012842,
          "provision_GW": 28.985384940565105,
          "multiple": 2.678984439541875,
          "AI_TWh": 110.62270620128817
        },
        {
          "electricity_TWh": 403.0022659402672,
          "average_GW": 46.00482487902594,
          "provision_GW": 68.74033349977142,
          "multiple": 6.716704432337787,
          "AI_TWh": 352.88590576904284
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "year": 2038,
      "scenarios": [
        {
          "electricity_TWh": 83.49340164533535,
          "average_GW": 9.531210233485771,
          "provision_GW": 16.24430250340315,
          "multiple": 1.3915566940889226,
          "AI_TWh": 33.56686544471422
        },
        {
          "electricity_TWh": 177.1426483321025,
          "average_GW": 20.221763508230882,
          "provision_GW": 31.611972835849244,
          "multiple": 2.9523774722017087,
          "AI_TWh": 127.21611213148138
        },
        {
          "electricity_TWh": 491.0339184119247,
          "average_GW": 56.054100275333866,
          "provision_GW": 83.12095693855979,
          "multiple": 8.183898640198745,
          "AI_TWh": 441.10738221130356
        }
      ]
    }
  ]
}